ENSO and
Stu
Ostro
The Weather Channel
© The Weather Channel
Updated December 1, 2008
|
1970-1994 INACTIVE PERIOD |
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YEAR |
NINO
3.4 AUG-SEP-OCT (ASO)
ANOMALY |
ENSO CATEGORY |
(incl. subtropical) TOTAL STORMS |
HURRICANES |
MAJOR HURRICANES |
|
CATEGORY TOTAL |
|
1970 |
-0.7 |
Weak La Nina |
10 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
1971 |
-0.8 |
Weak La Nina |
13 |
6 |
1 |
2,1,1 |
4 |
|
1972 |
+1.6 |
Mod-Strong El Nino |
7 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
1973 |
-1.4 |
Mod-Strong La Nina |
8 |
4 |
1 |
|
0 |
|
1974 |
-0.5 |
Weak La Nina |
11 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
1975 |
-1.5 |
Mod-Strong La Nina |
9 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
1976 |
+0.6 |
Weak El Nino |
10 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
1977 |
+0.5 |
Weak El Nino |
6 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1978 |
-0.4 |
Neutral* |
12 |
5 |
2 |
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0 |
|
1979 |
+0.3 |
Neutral |
9 |
6 |
2 |
3,2,1 |
6 |
|
1980 |
-0.1 |
Neutral |
11 |
9 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
1981 |
-0.2 |
Neutral |
12 |
7 |
3 |
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0 |
|
1982 |
+1.5 |
Mod-Strong El Nino |
6 |
2 |
1 |
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0 |
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1983 |
-0.5 |
Weak La Nina |
4 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
1984 |
-0.2 |
Neutral |
13 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
1985 |
-0.6 |
Weak La Nina |
11 |
7 |
3 |
3,3,2,1,1,1 |
11 |
|
1986 |
+0.6 |
Weak El Nino |
6 |
4 |
0 |
1,1 |
2 |
|
1987 |
+1.6 |
Strong El Nino |
7 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1988 |
-1.3 |
Mod-Strong La Nina |
12 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
1989 |
-0.4 |
Neutral |
11 |
7 |
2 |
4,1,1 |
6 |
|
1990 |
+0.3 |
Neutral |
14 |
8 |
1 |
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0 |
|
1991 |
+0.9 |
Weak El Nino |
8 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
1992 |
-0.1 |
Neutral |
7 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
5 |
|
1993 |
+0.3 |
Neutral |
8 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
1994 |
+0.7 |
Weak El Nino |
7 |
3 |
0 |
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0 |
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232 |
125 |
38 |
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62 |
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1970-1994 AVG. |
9.3 |
5 |
1.5 |
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2.5 |
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La Nina |
9.8 |
5 |
2 |
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3.5 |
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Neutral |
10.8 |
6.1 |
1.7 |
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2.9 |
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Weak El Nino |
7.4 |
4.4 |
1 |
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1.2 |
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Mod-Strong El Nino |
6.7 |
2.7 |
0.7 |
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0.7 |
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1995-2008 ACTIVE PERIOD |
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YEAR |
NINO 3.4 AUG-SEP-OCT ANOMALY |
ENSO CATEGORY |
TOTAL STORMS |
HURRICANES |
MAJOR HURRICANES |
|
CATEGORY TOTAL |
|
1995 |
-0.5 |
Weak La Nina |
19 |
11 |
5 |
3,2 |
5 |
|
1996 |
-0.1 |
Neutral |
13 |
9 |
6 |
3,2 |
5 |
|
1997 |
+2.2 |
Strong El Nino |
8 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1998 |
-1.1 |
Weak-Mod La Nina |
14 |
10 |
3 |
2,2,1 |
5 |
|
1999 |
-1.0 |
Weak-Mod La Nina |
12 |
8 |
5 |
3,2,1 |
6 |
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2000 |
-0.4 |
Neutral |
15 |
8 |
3 |
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0 |
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2001 |
0.0 |
Neutral |
15 |
9 |
4 |
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0 |
|
2002 |
+1.1 |
Moderate El Nino |
12 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
2003 |
+0.5* |
Neutral |
16 |
7 |
3 |
2,1 |
3 |
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2004 |
+0.9 |
Weak-Mod El Nino |
15 |
9 |
6 |
4,3,3,2,1,1 |
14 |
|
2005 |
+0.2 |
Neutral |
28 |
15 |
7 |
3,3,3,3,1,1 |
14 |
|
2006 |
+0.7 |
Weak El Nino |
10 |
5 |
2 |
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0 |
|
2007 |
-0.8 |
Weak-Mod La Nina |
15 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
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2008 |
0.0 |
Neutral |
16 |
8 |
5 |
1*,2,2 |
5 |
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*preliminary |
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TOTAL |
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208 |
112 |
54 |
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60 |
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1995-2008 AVG. |
14.9 |
8 |
3.9 |
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4.2 |
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La Nina |
15 |
8.8 |
3.8 |
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4.3 |
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Neutral |
17.2 |
9.3 |
4.7 |
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4.5 |
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Weak-Mod El Nino |
12.3 |
6 |
3.3 |
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5 |
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Strong El Nino |
8 |
3 |
1 |
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1 |
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1970-2008 AVG. |
11.3 |
6.1 |
2.4 |
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3.1 |
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La Nina |
6.3 |
2.6 |
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3.8 |
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Neutral |
13.3 |
7.4 |
2.9 |
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3.5 |
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Weak-Mod El Nino |
9.3 |
5 |
1.9 |
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2.6 |
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Strong El Nino |
7 |
2.8 |
0.8 |
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0.8 |
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* ASO 2003 is +0.5, which would appear to meet NOAA’s definition of El Nino, but it is not
highlighted as such in the NOAA
historical list for reasons evident in the explanation at the top of that
page (the added criterion of 5 different overlapping seasons). Therefore it is considered neutral for this
analysis… However, NDJ 2005-06 is not considered to be La Nina on the
historical list, but at the time it was
announced to be La Nina. Thus
there is an inconsistency in how NOAA handles these events, and arguably one
could choose not to label ASO 2003 as neutral; that would change these
results but in most categories not too substantively. |
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SOME OF THE MOST NOTABLE EVENTS/SEASONS
SINCE 1950 |
NINO 3.4 ASO ANOMALY |
ENSO CATEGORY |
|
Ike; 6 (7) consecutive named (2008) |
0.0 |
Neutral |
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Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita,
Wilma; many records shattered
(2005) |
+0.2 |
Neutral |
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|
+0.9 |
Weak-Mod El Nino |
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Isabel (2003) |
+0.5 |
Neutral* |
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Allison (2001) |
0.0 |
Neutral |
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Dennis, Floyd, Irene (1999) |
-1.0 |
Weak-Mod La Nina |
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Georges, Mitch (1998) |
-1.1 |
Weak-Mod La Nina |
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Fran (1996) |
-0.1 |
Neutral |
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19 storms; Opal (1995) |
-0.5 |
Weak La Nina |
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Alberto (1994) |
+0.7 |
Weak El Nino |
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Andrew (1992) |
-0.1 |
Neutral |
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Hugo (1989) |
-0.4 |
Neutral |
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Gilbert (1988) |
-1.3 |
Mod-Strong La Nina |
|
6 |
-0.6 |
Weak La Nina |
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Alicia (1983) |
-0.5 |
Weak La Nina |
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Allen (1980) |
-0.1 |
Neutral |
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David & Frederic (1979) |
+0.3 |
Neutral |
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Agnes (1972) |
+0.8** |
Weak El Nino |
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Camille; 12 hurricanes (1969) |
+0.6 |
Weak El Nino |
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Betsy (1965) |
+1.5 |
Mod-Strong El Nino |
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Carla (1961) |
-0.6 |
Weak La Nina |
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Donna (1960) |
0.0 |
Neutral |
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Audrey (1957) |
+0.9** |
Weak El Nino |
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Connie, Diane, Ione, Janet (1955) |
-1.4 |
Strong La Nina |
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Carol, Edna, Hazel (1954) |
-1.2 |
Moderate La Nina |
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Dog, King (1950) |
-0.8 |
Weak La Nina |
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** May-June-July (MJJ) used for Agnes
and Audrey sine they occurred in June |
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