ENSO and ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

Stu Ostro     

The Weather Channel

 

© The Weather Channel

 

Updated December 1, 2008

 

 

1970-1994 INACTIVE PERIOD

 

 

 

 

 

 

YEAR

NINO 3.4             AUG-SEP-OCT (ASO) ANOMALY

ENSO CATEGORY

(incl. subtropical)  TOTAL STORMS

HURRICANES

MAJOR HURRICANES

U.S. HURRICANE DIRECT HITS

CATEGORY TOTAL

1970

-0.7

Weak La Nina

10

5

2

3

3

1971

-0.8

Weak La Nina

13

6

1

2,1,1

4

1972

+1.6

Mod-Strong El Nino

7

3

0

1

1

1973

-1.4

Mod-Strong La Nina

8

4

1

 

0

1974

-0.5

Weak La Nina

11

4

2

3

3

1975

-1.5

Mod-Strong La Nina

9

6

3

3

3

1976

+0.6

Weak El Nino

10

6

2

1

1

1977

+0.5

Weak El Nino

6

5

1

1

1

1978

-0.4

Neutral*

12

5

2

 

0

1979

+0.3

Neutral

9

6

2

3,2,1

6

1980

-0.1

Neutral

11

9

2

3

3

1981

-0.2

Neutral

12

7

3

 

0

1982

+1.5

Mod-Strong El Nino

6

2

1

 

0

1983

-0.5

Weak La Nina

4

3

1

3

3

1984

-0.2

Neutral

13

5

1

3

3

1985

-0.6

Weak La Nina

11

7

3

3,3,2,1,1,1

11

1986

+0.6

Weak El Nino

6

4

0

1,1

2

1987

+1.6

Strong El Nino

7

3

1

1

1

1988

-1.3

Mod-Strong La Nina

12

5

3

1

1

1989

-0.4

Neutral

11

7

2

4,1,1

6

1990

+0.3

Neutral

14

8

1

 

0

1991

+0.9

Weak El Nino

8

4

2

2

2

1992

-0.1

Neutral

7

4

1

5

5

1993

+0.3

Neutral

8

4

1

3

3

1994

+0.7

Weak El Nino

7

3

0

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

232

125

38

 

62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1970-1994 AVG.

9.3

5

1.5

 

2.5

 

 

La Nina

9.8

5

2

 

3.5

 

 

Neutral

10.8

6.1

1.7

 

2.9

 

 

Weak El Nino

7.4

4.4

1

 

1.2

 

 

Mod-Strong El Nino

6.7

2.7

0.7

 

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1995-2008 ACTIVE PERIOD

 

 

 

 

 

 

YEAR

NINO 3.4             AUG-SEP-OCT ANOMALY

ENSO CATEGORY

TOTAL STORMS

HURRICANES

MAJOR HURRICANES

U.S. HURRICANE DIRECT HITS

CATEGORY TOTAL

1995

-0.5

Weak La Nina

19

11

5

3,2

5

1996

-0.1

Neutral

13

9

6

3,2

5

1997

+2.2

Strong El Nino

8

3

1

1

1

1998

-1.1

Weak-Mod La Nina

14

10

3

2,2,1

5

1999

-1.0

Weak-Mod La Nina

12

8

5

3,2,1

6

2000

-0.4

Neutral

15

8

3

 

0

2001

0.0

Neutral

15

9

4

 

0

2002

+1.1

Moderate El Nino

12

4

2

1

1

2003

+0.5*

Neutral

16

7

3

2,1

3

2004

+0.9

Weak-Mod El Nino

15

9

6

4,3,3,2,1,1

14

2005

+0.2

Neutral

28

15

7

3,3,3,3,1,1

14

2006

+0.7

Weak El Nino

10

5

2

 

0

2007

-0.8

Weak-Mod La Nina

15

6

2

1

1

2008

0.0

Neutral

16

8

5

1*,2,2

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

         *preliminary

 

TOTAL

 

 

208

112

54

 

60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1995-2008 AVG.

14.9

8

3.9

 

4.2

 

 

La Nina

15

8.8

3.8

 

4.3

 

 

Neutral

17.2

9.3

4.7

 

4.5

 

 

Weak-Mod El Nino

12.3

6

3.3

 

5

 

 

Strong El Nino

8

3

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1970-2008 AVG.

11.3

6.1

2.4

 

3.1

 

 

La Nina

11.5

6.3

2.6

 

3.8

 

 

Neutral

13.3

7.4

2.9

 

3.5

 

 

Weak-Mod El Nino

9.3

5

1.9

 

2.6

 

 

Strong El Nino

7

2.8

0.8

 

0.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* ASO 2003 is +0.5, which would appear to meet NOAA’s definition of El Nino, but it is not highlighted as such in the NOAA historical list for reasons evident in the explanation at the top of that page (the added criterion of 5 different overlapping seasons).  Therefore it is considered neutral for this analysis… However, NDJ 2005-06 is not considered to be La Nina on the historical list, but at the time it was announced to be La Nina.  Thus there is an inconsistency in how NOAA handles these events, and arguably one could choose not to label ASO 2003 as neutral; that would change these results but in most categories not too substantively.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SOME OF THE MOST NOTABLE EVENTS/SEASONS SINCE 1950

NINO 3.4 ASO ANOMALY

ENSO CATEGORY

Ike; 6 (7) consecutive named U.S. storm/hurr. landfalls (hits); 3 major hurr. landfalls in Cuba; major hurr. developed in 5 consecutive months

(2008)

0.0

Neutral

Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma;      many records shattered (2005)

+0.2

Neutral

Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne (2004)

+0.9

Weak-Mod El Nino

Isabel (2003)

+0.5

Neutral*

Allison (2001)

0.0

Neutral

Dennis, Floyd, Irene (1999)

-1.0

Weak-Mod La Nina

Georges, Mitch (1998)

-1.1

Weak-Mod La Nina

Fran (1996)

-0.1

Neutral

19 storms; Opal (1995)

-0.5

Weak La Nina

Alberto (1994)

+0.7

Weak El Nino

Andrew (1992)

-0.1

Neutral

Hugo (1989)

-0.4

Neutral

Gilbert (1988)

-1.3

Mod-Strong La Nina

 6 U.S. hurricane landfalls (1985)

-0.6

Weak La Nina

Alicia (1983)

-0.5

Weak La Nina

Allen (1980)

-0.1

Neutral

David & Frederic (1979)

+0.3

Neutral

Agnes (1972)

+0.8**

Weak El Nino

Camille; 12 hurricanes (1969)

+0.6

Weak El Nino

Betsy (1965)

+1.5

Mod-Strong El Nino

Carla (1961)

-0.6

Weak La Nina

 Donna (1960)

0.0

Neutral

Audrey (1957)

+0.9**

Weak El Nino

Connie, Diane, Ione, Janet (1955)

-1.4

Strong La Nina

Carol, Edna, Hazel (1954)

-1.2

Moderate La Nina

Dog, King (1950)

-0.8

Weak La Nina

 

 

 

 

** May-June-July (MJJ) used for Agnes and Audrey sine they occurred in June